Why Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals Deserves the AL MVP Over Aaron Judge of the Yankees
The last time Aaron Judge hit 60 home runs, even the brilliance of Shohei Ohtani at his two-way peak couldn’t keep him from winning the American League MVP.
However, he was fortunate not to face off against the 2024 version of Bobby Witt Jr.
There should be no need to convince anyone that the Kansas City Royals shortstop is a superstar. He was the top prospect in baseball when he debuted in 2022, delivered a 20-20 season that year, and followed it up with a 30-30 season in 2023. This year, he earned his first All-Star nod.
Despite this, the 24-year-old Witt was notably overlooked as the AL’s starting shortstop (Gunnar Henderson got the nod), and his name was missing from the list of the league’s top-selling jerseys. I dare say he’s underrated, and that only happens when players are underappreciated.
So, let’s take a moment to see what Witt is doing for the Royals in 2024:
- 162 H: 1st in MLB
- 99 R: 1st in MLB
- .349 AVG: 1st in MLB
- .394 OBP: T-3rd in MLB
- .606 SLG: 3rd in MLB
- 1.000 OPS: 4th in MLB
There’s also Witt’s impressive .409 batting average at Kauffman Stadium, the highest home average since Barry Bonds in 2004. With 22 home runs and 25 stolen bases, he’s also the first player in AL/NL history to notch at least 20 homers and 20 steals in each of his first three seasons.
“He’s the face of baseball moving forward, or at least part of the face along with a lot of other good players, and I don’t say that lightly,” said Tigers manager A.J. Hinch recently.
Witt’s efforts are paying off in a big way. The Royals currently hold the AL’s third wild-card spot with a 64-52 record. If they maintain their position, they’ll make the playoffs for the first time since winning the World Series in 2015.
Despite Witt’s incredible season, Aaron Judge remains the heavy favorite for the AL MVP according to DraftKings. Judge is currently listed as a -1100 favorite, with Witt Jr. at +550. The Yankees captain leads MLB with a 1.147 OPS and has already hit 41 home runs, just 21 shy of his AL-record 62 from 2022. The New York Yankees are also tied for the top spot in the AL East with a 68-47 record.
There’s still plenty of season left to play, and while that could impact things in different ways, it’s not difficult to make a case for Witt over Judge as the AL MVP.
In fact, it’s quite straightforward.
Let’s Not Use WAR to Settle This
One thing we’re not going to do is rely on wins above replacement (WAR) to determine the outcome of this debate.
This is partly a matter of principle. While WAR is a valuable tool, its influence on MVP voting over the past decade has become excessive. “Most Valuable Player” has almost become interchangeable with “Guy with the Most WAR,” and that’s disappointing.
Moreover, WAR doesn’t offer much clarity in this case.
Judge holds a slight edge with a 7.8 WAR according to Baseball Reference, just 0.2 higher than Witt’s 7.6. Conversely, Witt leads with an 8.1 WAR on FanGraphs, edging out Judge’s 7.8 by just 0.3.
The best approach, then, is to evaluate each player’s individual merits. This is particularly challenging with Witt becausThe fact that Judge’s and Witt’s WAR are still so close is largely due to how dominant Judge has been at the plate. Beyond his OPS and home run totals, this is evident in his league-leading numbers in Batting Runs and Runs Created.e, as MLB so aptly put it, he’s just so incredibly good at everything:
But is Judge really that much better of an offensive player than Witt?
The Case for Witt’s Offense
Judge has reached base 31 more times than Witt, including 19 more home runs. While these are notable advantages, the two are actually closer than you might expect in other areas.
Witt (65) and Judge (67) are nearly tied in extra-base hits, and Witt even has a slight edge in total bases with 281 compared to Judge’s 280. Additionally, Witt has 20 more stolen bases than Judge.
Witt clearly grasps that the goal is to get around the bases, no matter how it’s done. His 99 runs scored are not just impressive in isolation; they represent 18% of all the Royals’ runs, a higher percentage than any other player on their respective teams, where no one else accounts for more than 16% of their team’s runs.
Where Witt falls short is in RBIs. Judge has driven in 104 runs, 20 more than Witt, leading all hitters comfortably.
However, Witt has shown a knack for clutch hits for a reason.
On average, Witt has faced higher-pressure situations than Judge, coming to the plate with 254 runners on base. Out of those opportunities, 62 runs have been scored.
That’s a rate of 24.4 percent, the highest of any hitter with at least 100 runners on base.
The Case for Witt’s Defense
Defense might not be the most glamorous aspect of an MVP debate, especially when it involves two-position players, but it’s crucial.
In baseball, alongside bases and runs, outs are another vital currency. For infielders, opportunities to make outs can accumulate almost as quickly as at-bats do on the offensive side.
For a team like the Royals, solid defense isn’t just a bonus; it’s essential. Their pitching staff relies less on strikeouts, leading to an AL-high 4,182 defensive chances for the team’s fielders. Witt has personally handled 433 of those, ranking fourth among AL shortstops.
If Witt were a poor defender, it would be tough for the Royals to manage day in and day out. Instead, Defensive Runs Saved rates him as the fourth-best shortstop in MLB, while Outs Above Average ranks him as the second-best defender across all positions.
Judge has a history of being an elite defender, but in 2024, he’s been hovering around average for a team that primarily relies on strikeouts.
The Case for Witt’s Narrative
Even with all of this in mind, reducing Witt’s MVP case to just his statistics misses the point—or at least only captures part of it.
There’s a compelling story here as well, and it’s pretty remarkable.
This brings me to what I promise are the last numbers I’ll mention, but I’ll present them as “Thing 1” and “Thing 2”:
Thing 1: From 71.2 to 99.4
Thing 2: From 13.1 to 60.2
These numbers reflect the FanGraphs playoff odds from the start of the season to the current day. Thing 1 represents the Yankees, whose chances have increased by 40 percent. Thing 2 represents the Royals, whose odds have skyrocketed by 360 percent.
In other words, the Yankees are performing as expected, while the Royals have exceeded all expectations.
Even ignoring the vast payroll difference between these two teams—hint: it’s substantial—there’s something powerful about the transformation the Royals have undergone. This is evident in the increased attendance at Kauffman Stadium. While fans come to see the Royals as a whole, it’s clear that many are specifically there to see Witt.
As one fan told Mike Lupica of MLB.com: “You never know if a kid like this is going to come along. But if you’re a baseball fan, what keeps you going is the hope that someday a player like Bobby will come along again.”
Given that Witt has had a better three-year start than any Royal in history, it’s a miracle that a player like him has appeared even once. And now more than ever, it feels like he’s here to restore the franchise’s glory.
For this, he already deserves the MVP. And the longer he keeps it up, the more he’ll earn it.
