Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. Milwaukee Admirals: Statistics, Key Facts, and Prediction

Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. Milwaukee Admirals: Statistics, Key Facts, and Prediction

For the second consecutive year, the Western Conference Finals in the American Hockey League will feature a showdown between the Coachella Valley Firebirds and the Milwaukee Admirals.

Both teams clinched the regular season and playoff titles in their respective divisions, finishing with the second (Firebirds 103 points) and third (Admirals 97 points) highest point totals in the AHL. The Firebirds are affiliated with the NHL’s Seattle Kraken, while the Admirals are affiliated with the NHL’s Nashville Predators. Here’s a closer look at their best-of-7 series, with the winner advancing to the Calder Cup Final.

The schedule

• Wednesday, May 29: Admirals at Firebirds, 7 p.m.
• Friday, May 31: Admirals at Firebirds, 7 p.m.
• Tuesday, June 4: Firebirds at Admirals, 5 p.m.
• Thursday, June 6: Firebirds at Admirals, 5 p.m.
• Saturday, June 8: Firebirds at Admirals, 4 p.m. (If nec.)
• Monday, June 10: Admirals at Firebirds, 7 p.m. (If nec.)
• Wednesday, June 12: Admirals at Firebirds, 7 p.m. (If nec.)

How they got here

Coachella Valley Firebirds: First-round bye; defeated Calgary Wranglers 3-1 in second round; defeated Ontario Reign 3-0 in the third round.

Milwaukee Admirals: First-round bye; defeated Dallas Stars 3-2 in second round; defeated Grand Rapids Griffins 3-2 in third round. Of note, the Admirals trailed the Stars 2-0 in that second-round series before rallying to win three in a row.

Remembering last year

The Firebirds eliminated Milwaukee in six games to win the 2023 Western Conference crown. Five of the six games of the series were won by the home team. The Firebirds won Games 1 and 2 by scores of 6-4 and 5-3. The Admirals won games 3 and 4 by scores of 3-1 and 5-2 to even the series at 2-2. But the Firebirds pulled out a crucial 2-1 win in Game 5 at Milwaukee thanks to goals by Brogan Rafferty and Max McCormick and the goaltending of Joey Daccord to return to Coachella Valley with a chance to clinch the series. And the Firebirds did just that with a 4-3 win, including two goals from Tye Kartye.

3 storylines

Rest vs. Rust: When the first game of the series hits the ice Wednesday night, it will be the first game for the Firebirds in 10 days, while it will have been just three days since the Admirals last played, capturing a do-or-die Game 5 over Grand Rapids 2-0 on Sunday. Firebirds fans remember that the worst game the team has played this postseason and its only loss was the first game against Calgary in a similar scenario in which they hadn’t played in almost two weeks and looked slow against a Wranglers team that had just won its first-round series days before. Coach Dan Bylsma said after the sweep of Ontario that he expects this time to be different in the sense that unlike against Calgary where they were starting from a standstill, this time they will already have seven playoff games under their belt so they won’t have to remember what playoff hockey is like. But Game 1 will be an interesting test of that theory.

Revenge: Just like Firebirds players and fans have been stewing over the Game 7 loss to Hershey in the Calder Cup Finals last year, the Admirals family are likely feeling the same way about the Firebirds. It was a series they felt like they had a good chance to win. All four of their losses in the hard-fought series were by one or two goals. Six positional players and one goalie are on this year’s roster that played in last year’s Game 6 loss to the Firebirds. And just like the Firebirds, the entire coaching staff is back. The Firebirds can not be thinking ahead to their own potential revenge date with Hershey and lose focus on an Admirals team fueled by the same motivation.

Goalie battle: Chris Driedger has started all seven games in net for the Firebirds and has been excellent. The team is 6-1 and he has a 2.33 goals against average. You know what you’re going to get in goal from the Firebirds. Interestingly, though, the Admirals are using a different approach. Milwaukee has used two goalies the entire playoffs in Yaraslov Askarov and Troy Grosenick. They’ve played 10 games and each goalie has started five. The numbers, however, are clearly slanted toward Grosenick. The team is 4-1 in his starts and he’s allowed just two goals per game, including a signature 2-0 shutout in Game 5 against Grand Rapids. Askarov, meanwhile, has struggled, allowing 3.25 goals per game with the team sporting a 2-3 record in his five starts. In the first series against Dallas, Askarov started the first two games, both losses, only to see Grosenick come in to bail the team out with three straight wins. In the second series against Grand Rapids. Grosenick started out the series, but it was Askarov who started games 3 and 4. Coach Karl Taylor played a hunch and went back to Grosenick who rewarded him with the shutout. It will be interesting to see if Taylor continues to use both keepers, or if Grosenick’s excellent play will garner him the lion’s share of the time between the pipes for the Admirals against the Firebirds.

3 key Admirals players

Zach L’Heureux: The Admirals talented left-winger just turned 21 and has been a revelation this postseason and probably would be the AHL playoff MVP right now if one were to be handed out. In 10 games he has 13 points, including a whopping eight goals. Both numbers are the most by any player in this postseason. In fact, the most goals any other player has is five. He’s got the hot hand, but his outburst is a bit surprising in that he only had 19 goals the entire season and was not among the AHL’s top 50 point-getters. He was more known for racking up penalty minutes having the second most in the entire AHL.

Egor Afanasyev: Another left-winger for the Admirals, he has also been a scoring machine this postseason and was the team’s leading scorer in the regular season. He has five goals and nine points this postseason. He had a hat trick in the pivotal 3-2 win over Grand Rapids in Game 3 of that series. He is one of the players who was on the Admirals last season, and therefore has played at Acrisure Arena and has the motivation of the Firebirds ending his season.

Marc Del Gaizo: The Admirals’ defenseman has had a fine two-way postseason. He has three goals and two assists with two of his goals coming in the must-win Game 3 against the Dallas Stars in the second round. His defense has been sound, as well. He has a +/- of +5 this postseason, second-best on the team. This is his third straight year playing 60 or more games for the Admirals, giving them a veteran presence on an otherwise young team.

Prediction

Similar to the Firebirds’ playoff run last season, the Admirals have been teetering on the edge, having faced four elimination games already. While the Admirals possess an explosive offense and will be motivated by last season’s elimination at the hands of the Firebirds, Coachella Valley appears highly focused with all aspects of their game working harmoniously. Driedger has been exceptional in goal, the team is generating offense from all four lines, and their defense is more robust than last year’s squad. Additionally, the Firebirds are led by veterans, whereas five of the Admirals’ top six postseason scorers are rookies. This gives Coachella Valley a significant advantage in the series. Although the Firebirds might be vulnerable to a Game 1 stumble or looking ahead to a potential matchup with Hershey, strong leadership on and off the ice should keep them on track. Prediction: Firebirds in 5.